{ "label": "replay-2026-10-26", "as_of": "2026-10-26", "method": { "mix": { "label": "Agentic coding (SemiAnalysis' own September usage)", "shares": { "input": 0.0043, "cache_read": 0.966, "cache_write": 0.0263, "output": 0.0034 }, "chart": "method-api-equivalent.png", "derivation": "Panel 3 prints each type's contribution at Opus 5.5 list price: input $0.0172 / $4.00 = 0.43%; cache write $0.1315 / $5.00 = 2.63%; cached input $0.1932 / $0.20 = 96.60%; output $0.0680 / $20.00 = 0.34%. These sum to 100%. The footnote's rounded mix (0.4 / 96.6 / 2.6 / 0.3) sums to 99.9%.", "copied": "Input $4.00 $0.0172 | Cache write $5.00 $0.1315 | Cached input $0.20 $0.1932 | Output $20.00 $0.0680 | Blended $0.4099" }, "weeks_per_month": 4.345, "working_days": 22, "meter": { "measured_by": "SemiAnalysis", "measured_on": "2026-10-05", "article": { "title": "Anthropic Subscriptions Offer 5x+ More Value Than OpenAI", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-subscriptions-offer-5x", "published": "2026-10-05", "evidence_dir": "data/evidence/semianalysis-2026-10-05" } }, "aa_index": "Intelligence Index v4.3.2", "cursorbench": "CursorBench 4.0" }, "providers": { "anthropic": { "name": "Anthropic", "product": "Claude", "color": "#c96442" }, "openai": { "name": "OpenAI", "product": "ChatGPT", "color": "#10a37f" }, "google": { "name": "Google", "product": "Google AI", "color": "#3b6fd8" }, "xai": { "name": "xAI", "product": "Grok", "color": "#5b5b66" } }, "plans": [ { "id": "claude-pro", "name": "Claude Pro", "provider": "anthropic", "provider_name": "Anthropic", "status": "current", "usd_month": 20.0, "fee_source": "plan page", "limits": "5-hour and weekly limits", "notes": [ "Fable is paid for with usage credits, not the plan's limit." ], "models": [ { "model": "claude-opus-5.5", "name": "Claude Opus 5.5", "short": "Opus 5.5", "tier": "mid", "meter_plan": "claude-pro", "blend_usd_per_mtok": 0.4099, "tokens": 2880000000.0, "reading": { "tokens": 2880000000.0, "kind": "tokens_per_usd", "rel_rounding": 0.003472222222222222, "chart": "mid-tokens.png", "copied": "144M / $" }, "api_usd": 1180.512, "efforts": { "low": { "score": 42.308, "usd_per_task": 0.5512, "tasks": 2141.7126269956457, "cursorbench": { "score": 43.7, "usd_per_task": 1.17, "tasks": 1008.9846153846154 } }, "medium": { "score": 51.243, "usd_per_task": 1.336, "tasks": 883.6167664670658, "cursorbench": { "score": 52.5, "usd_per_task": 2.91, "tasks": 405.6742268041237 } }, "high": { "score": 53.583, "usd_per_task": 1.8225, "tasks": 647.7432098765431, "cursorbench": { "score": 56.0, "usd_per_task": 3.97, "tasks": 297.35818639798487 } }, "xhigh": { "score": 55.987, "usd_per_task": 3.4591, "tasks": 341.2772108351883, "cursorbench": { "score": 56.0, "usd_per_task": 6.98, "tasks": 169.12779369627506 } }, "max": { "score": 57.622, "usd_per_task": 5.982, "tasks": 197.34403209628886, "cursorbench": { "score": 57.8, "usd_per_task": 13.43, "tasks": 87.90111690245719 } } }, "api_usd_per_fee_usd": 59.0256, "tokens_per_fee_usd": 144000000.0 }, { "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", "name": "Claude Sonnet 5.5", "short": "Sonnet 5.5", "tier": "fast", "meter_plan": "claude-pro", "blend_usd_per_mtok": 0.20495, "tokens": 6055135398.877775, "reading": { "tokens": 6055135398.877775, "kind": "api_usd_month", "rel_rounding": 0.00040290088638195, "chart": "claude-plans-margin.png", "copied": "Sonnet 5.5 62.0\u00d7 $1,241/mo of API value", "note": "SemiAnalysis printed dollars only; turned back into tokens at the list price it used." }, "api_usd": 1241.0, "efforts": { "low": { "score": 35.868, "usd_per_task": 0.3452, "tasks": 3595.0173812282733, "cursorbench": { "score": 35.8, "usd_per_task": 0.37, "tasks": 3354.054054054054 } }, "medium": { "score": 40.839, "usd_per_task": 0.4833, "tasks": 2567.763294020277, "cursorbench": { "score": 39.2, "usd_per_task": 0.52, "tasks": 2386.5384615384614 } }, "high": { "score": 46.753, "usd_per_task": 0.8844, "tasks": 1403.2112166440525, "cursorbench": { "score": 47.8, "usd_per_task": 1.2, "tasks": 1034.1666666666667 } }, "xhigh": { "score": 51.896, "usd_per_task": 2.012, "tasks": 616.7992047713718, "cursorbench": { "score": 53.1, "usd_per_task": 2.81, "tasks": 441.6370106761566 } }, "max": { "score": 56.0, "usd_per_task": 5.4609, "tasks": 227.25191818198468, "cursorbench": { "score": 55.5, "usd_per_task": 7.05, "tasks": 176.02836879432624 } } }, "api_usd_per_fee_usd": 62.05, "tokens_per_fee_usd": 302756769.9438888 }, { "model": "claude-haiku-5.5", "name": "Claude Haiku 5.5", "short": "Haiku 5.5", "tier": "small", "blend_usd_per_mtok": 0.0150775, "efforts": { "low": { "score": 29.452, "usd_per_task": 0.0245, "cursorbench": { "score": 30.9, "usd_per_task": 0.08 } }, "medium": { "score": 34.465, "usd_per_task": 0.047, "cursorbench": { "score": 36.9, "usd_per_task": 0.17 } }, "high": { "score": 37.824, "usd_per_task": 0.0794, "cursorbench": { "score": 42.3, "usd_per_task": 0.32 } }, "xhigh": { "score": 41.249, "usd_per_task": 0.1238, "cursorbench": { "score": 44.3, "usd_per_task": 0.56 } }, "max": { "score": 43.395, "usd_per_task": 0.2128, "cursorbench": { "score": 48.4, "usd_per_task": 1.12 } } } } ], "measured": true, "what_if": [] }, { "id": "claude-max", "name": "Claude Max 5x", "provider": "anthropic", "provider_name": "Anthropic", "status": "current", "usd_month": 100.0, "fee_source": "plan page", "limits": "5-hour and weekly limits; 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"cursorbench": { "score": 36.9, "usd_per_task": 0.17 } }, "high": { "score": 37.824, "usd_per_task": 0.0794, "cursorbench": { "score": 42.3, "usd_per_task": 0.32 } }, "xhigh": { "score": 41.249, "usd_per_task": 0.1238, "cursorbench": { "score": 44.3, "usd_per_task": 0.56 } }, "max": { "score": 43.395, "usd_per_task": 0.2128, "cursorbench": { "score": 48.4, "usd_per_task": 1.12 } } } } ], "measured": true, "what_if": [] }, { "id": "claude-ultra", "name": "Claude Max 20x", "provider": "anthropic", "provider_name": "Anthropic", "status": "current", "usd_month": 200, "fee_source": "meter chart (plan page did not print it)", "limits": "Weekly limit only (no 5-hour limit for verified accounts); Fable up to half the weekly limit", "notes": [ "Renamed from Max 20x on 2026-10-30; 5-hour limit removed for verified accounts; \"Weekly limits remain unchanged.\"", "$200 a month of API credits for the Claude Platform (not usable in Claude Code)." ], "models": [ { "model": "claude-fable-5.1", "name": 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}, "high": { "score": 53.583, "usd_per_task": 1.8225, "tasks": 6433.79939643347, "cursorbench": { "score": 56.0, "usd_per_task": 3.97, "tasks": 2953.551486146095 } }, "xhigh": { "score": 55.987, "usd_per_task": 3.4591, "tasks": 3389.783296233124, "cursorbench": { "score": 56.0, "usd_per_task": 6.98, "tasks": 1679.8853008595986 } }, "max": { "score": 57.622, "usd_per_task": 5.982, "tasks": 1960.1470076897356, "cursorbench": { "score": 57.8, "usd_per_task": 13.43, "tasks": 873.0900521221146 } } }, "api_usd_per_fee_usd": 58.62799699999999, "tokens_per_fee_usd": 143030000.0 }, { "model": "claude-sonnet-5.5", "name": "Claude Sonnet 5.5", "short": "Sonnet 5.5", "tier": "fast", "meter_plan": "claude-max-20x", "blend_usd_per_mtok": 0.20495, "tokens": 61131983410.58795, "reading": { "tokens": 61131983410.58795, "kind": "api_usd_month", "rel_rounding": 3.990741479766941e-05, "chart": "claude-plans-margin.png", "copied": "Sonnet 5.5 62.6\u00d7 $12,529/mo of API value", "note": "SemiAnalysis printed dollars only; turned back into tokens at the list price it used." }, "api_usd": 12529.0, "efforts": { "low": { "score": 35.868, "usd_per_task": 0.3452, "tasks": 36294.90150637311, "cursorbench": { "score": 35.8, "usd_per_task": 0.37, "tasks": 33862.16216216216 } }, "medium": { "score": 40.839, "usd_per_task": 0.4833, "tasks": 25923.856817711567, "cursorbench": { "score": 39.2, "usd_per_task": 0.52, "tasks": 24094.23076923077 } }, "high": { "score": 46.753, "usd_per_task": 0.8844, "tasks": 14166.666666666668, "cursorbench": { "score": 47.8, "usd_per_task": 1.2, "tasks": 10440.833333333334 } }, "xhigh": { "score": 51.896, "usd_per_task": 2.012, "tasks": 6227.1371769383695, "cursorbench": { "score": 53.1, "usd_per_task": 2.81, "tasks": 4458.718861209964 } }, "max": { "score": 56.0, "usd_per_task": 5.4609, "tasks": 2294.3104616455166, "cursorbench": { "score": 55.5, "usd_per_task": 7.05, "tasks": 1777.163120567376 } } }, "api_usd_per_fee_usd": 62.645, "tokens_per_fee_usd": 305659917.0529398 }, { "model": "claude-haiku-5.5", "name": "Claude Haiku 5.5", "short": "Haiku 5.5", "tier": "small", "blend_usd_per_mtok": 0.0150775, "efforts": { "low": { "score": 29.452, "usd_per_task": 0.0245, "cursorbench": { "score": 30.9, "usd_per_task": 0.08 } }, "medium": { "score": 34.465, "usd_per_task": 0.047, "cursorbench": { "score": 36.9, "usd_per_task": 0.17 } }, "high": { "score": 37.824, "usd_per_task": 0.0794, "cursorbench": { "score": 42.3, "usd_per_task": 0.32 } }, "xhigh": { "score": 41.249, "usd_per_task": 0.1238, "cursorbench": { "score": 44.3, "usd_per_task": 0.56 } }, "max": { "score": 43.395, "usd_per_task": 0.2128, "cursorbench": { "score": 48.4, "usd_per_task": 1.12 } } } } ], "measured": true, "what_if": [ { "date": "2026-10-22", "kind": "ab_test", "factor": 0.8, "metered": true, "what": "SemiAnalysis detected an Anthropic A/B test that cuts monthly API value by about 20% and raises the 5-hour limit by about 20% on some accounts.", "source": 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No meter reading for Fable 5.2 has been published, so Fable on Claude plans is unmeasured until one is.", "source": "https://claude.dev/blog/which-claude-model-should-you-build-with/", "copied": "The current Claude lineup has four generally available models: Claude Haiku 5.5, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Claude Opus 5.5 and Claude Fable 5.2." } ], "video_lens": { "api_usd_pro_opus": { "value": 1180.512, "inputs": { "tokens": 2880000000.0, "blend": 0.4099 } }, "api_usd_plus_sol": { "value": 213.148, "inputs": { "tokens": 1040000000.0, "blend": 0.20495 } }, "api_usd_max5x_opus": { "value": 5738.599999999999, "inputs": { "tokens": 14000000000.0, "blend": 0.4099 } }, "api_usd_pro100_sol": { "value": 1045.245, "inputs": { "tokens": 5100000000.0, "blend": 0.20495 } }, "api_usd_ultra_opus": { "value": 11725.5994, "inputs": { "tokens": 28606000000.0, "blend": 0.4099 } }, "api_usd_pro200_sol": { "value": 2090.49, "inputs": { "tokens": 10200000000.0, "blend": 0.20495 } }, "api_ratio_200": { "value": 5.609019607843138, "inputs": {} }, "same_ratio_every_tier": { "value": true, "inputs": { "ratios": [ 5.54, 5.49, 5.61 ] } }, "blend_opus": { "value": 0.4099, "inputs": { "prices": { "input": 4.0, "output": 20.0, "cache_write": 5.0, "cache_read": 0.2, "copied": "Claude Opus 5.5 | $4 | $20 | $5 (5m write) | $0.20 (hit)", "source": { "url": "https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing", "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261026205501/https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing", "captured": "20261026205501", "fetched_at": "2026-11-10T23:04:10+00:00", "status": 200, "sha256": "116444b154a46199d4806a90c9b7a692ebd6020aabf01d72cb0a11f59ac86a5e" } } } }, "blend_sol": { "value": 0.20495, "inputs": { "prices": { "input": 2.0, "output": 10.0, "cache_read": 0.1, "cache_write": 2.5, "copied": "| gpt-6.1-sol | $2.00 | $10.00 | $0.10 | $2.50", "source": { "url": "https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing", "archive_url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261026212401/https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing", "captured": "20261026212401", "fetched_at": "2026-11-10T23:04:14+00:00", "status": 200, "sha256": "cdb83d0fded8396929820727b9e5b6c3d8d0570ee1aa2ae4957cf14d6ae3e05c" } } } }, "tokens_ultra_opus_b": { "value": 28.606, "inputs": {} }, "tokens_pro200_sol_b": { "value": 10.2, "inputs": {} }, "token_ratio_200": { "value": 2.804509803921569, "inputs": {} }, "per_dollar_opus": { "value": 59.0256, "inputs": { "every_tier": [ 59.03, 57.39, 58.63 ] } }, "per_dollar_sol": { "value": 10.657399999999999, "inputs": { "every_tier": [ 10.66, 10.45, 10.45 ] } }, "no_volume_discount": { "value": true, "inputs": {} }, "week_tokens_m": { "value": 6583.659378596088, "inputs": { "weeks_per_month": 4.345 } }, "windows_per_week": { "value": 3.75, "inputs": {} }, "window_tokens_m": { "value": 1755.6425009589568, "inputs": {} }, "matched_pair": { "value": "claude-opus-5.5@medium vs gpt-6.1-sol@xhigh", "inputs": { "scores": [ 51.243, 51.038 ] } }, "cpt_ratio_matched": { "value": 3.400356324764571, "inputs": { "usd_per_task": [ 1.336, 0.3929 ] } }, "tasks_ultra_matched": { "value": 8776.646257485028, "inputs": { "usd_per_task": 1.336, "api_usd": 11725.5994 } }, "tasks_pro200_matched": { "value": 5320.666836345125, "inputs": { "usd_per_task": 0.3929, "api_usd": 2090.49 } }, "tasks_per_day_ultra": { "value": 398.93846624931945, "inputs": {} }, "tasks_per_day_pro200": { "value": 241.84849256114205, "inputs": {} }, "task_ratio_matched": { "value": 1.6495387753903956, "inputs": {} }, "tasks_ultra_max": { "value": 1960.1470076897356, "inputs": { "usd_per_task": 5.982 } }, "tasks_pro200_max": { "value": 2886.619718309859, "inputs": { "usd_per_task": 0.7242 } }, "max_effort_flips": { "value": true, "inputs": {} }, "opus_max_score": { "value": 57.622, "inputs": {} }, "opus_max_vs_default_cpt": { "value": 4.477544910179641, "inputs": {} }, "api_usd_ultra_fable": { "value": 2506.4, "inputs": { "tokens": 3200000000.0, "blend": 0.78325 } }, "api_usd_pro200_astra": { "value": 2864.725, "inputs": { "tokens": 1900000000.0, "blend": 1.50775 } }, "flagship_pair": { "value": "claude-fable-5.1@xhigh vs gpt-6-astra@max", "inputs": { "scores": [ 53.203, 52.674 ] } }, "tasks_ultra_fable": { "value": 419.2496194570363, "inputs": { "usd_per_task": 5.9783 } }, "tasks_pro200_astra": { "value": 879.4244052187261, "inputs": { "usd_per_task": 3.2575 } }, "astra_half_hedge": { "value": 439.71220260936303, "inputs": { "note": "SemiAnalysis labels 1.9B as the Pro 200 allowance after the Sep 29 cut, so the halving hedge is not needed." } }, "pro500_astra_gain": { "value": 1.2105263157894737, "inputs": {} }, "ultrafast_burn": { "value": 8.0, "inputs": { "copied": "GPT-6 Astra Ultrafast | 8x" } }, "argon_score": { "value": 52.561, "inputs": {} }, "argon_cpt": { "value": 1.62, "inputs": {} }, "argon_price_doubles": { "value": true, "inputs": { "scheduled": [ { "usd_per_mtok": 4.0, "from": "December 1, 2026" }, { "usd_per_mtok": 20.0, "from": "December 1, 2026" } ] } }, "google_unmeasured": { "value": true, "inputs": {} }, "chat_mix_ultra": { "value": 9203.18916068832, "inputs": { "plan_usd_per_mtok": 0.062587 } }, "ab_test_value": { "value": 9380.479519999999, "inputs": { "factor": 0.8 } }, "tasks_max5x_medium": { "value": 4295.359281437125, "inputs": { "usd_per_task": 1.336 } } }, "input_errors": [ "price claude-fable-5.2: row 'Claude Fable 5.2' not in model pricing table", "price gemini-4-carbon: section gemini-4-carbon not found", "plan claude-ultra: pattern for claude-ultra did not match" ], "sources": [ { "name": "Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index Intelligence Index v4.3.2", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261026212332/https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models", "when": "20261026212332" }, { "name": "CursorBench 4.0", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261026212022/https://cursor.com/cursorbench", "when": "20261026212022" }, { "name": "API prices (Claude)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261026205501/https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing", "when": "20261026205501" }, { "name": "API prices (GPT-6)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261026212401/https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/pricing", "when": "20261026212401" }, { "name": "API prices (Gemini)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261026205500/https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/pricing", "when": "20261026205500" }, { "name": "API prices (Grok)", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261026174652/https://docs.x.ai/developers/models", "when": "20261026174652" }, { "name": "Plan prices", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261026210929/https://claude.com/pricing", "when": "20261026210929" }, { "name": "Plan prices", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261023145529/https://learn.chatgpt.com/docs/pricing", "when": "20261023145529" }, { "name": "Plan prices", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261017154532/https://gemini.google/us/subscriptions/?hl=en", "when": "20261017154532" }, { "name": "Plan prices", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20261026014148/https://x.ai/pricing", "when": "20261026014148" }, { "name": "Usage meters: SemiAnalysis, 2026-10-05", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-subscriptions-offer-5x", "when": "2026-10-05" }, { "name": "Which Claude model should you build with?", "url": "https://claude.dev/blog/which-claude-model-should-you-build-with/", "when": "2026-11-09" }, { "name": "Change 2026-10-22", "url": "https://x.com/SemiAnalysis_/status/2113383965784502444", "when": "2026-10-22" }, { "name": "Change 2026-10-29", "url": "https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2115850175868727621", "when": "2026-10-29" }, { "name": "Change 2026-10-30", "url": "https://x.com/claudeai/status/2116220869479428500", "when": "2026-10-30" }, { "name": "Change 2026-11-09", "url": "https://claude.dev/blog/which-claude-model-should-you-build-with/", "when": "2026-11-09" } ], "vs_video": { "run": "replay-2026-10-26", "base": null, "video": { "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xt-Wc2Nyf1M", "title": "$200 for ChatGPT, Claude or Gemini? I Did the Math", "channel": "Kai", "uploaded": "2026-11-03", "inputs_as_of": "2026-10-26", "inputs_note": "Description: 'Prices checked Oct 26, 2026; plan changes added Nov 3.' Allowances: SemiAnalysis, 2026-10-05. Cost per task: Artificial Analysis before its Oct 28 re-index." }, "rows": [ { "id": "api_usd_ultra_opus", "label": "Claude Max 20x API value (Opus 5.5)", "video": 11726, "ours": 11725.5994, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "Claude Max 20X came out equivalent to $11,726 a month in API value", "video_fmt": "$11,726", "ours_fmt": "$11,726" }, { "id": "api_usd_pro200_sol", "label": "ChatGPT Pro 200 API value (Sol 6.1)", "video": 2084, "ours": 2090.49, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "ChatGPT Pro 200, at the same price, came out to $2,084 a month", "video_fmt": "$2,084", "ours_fmt": "$2,090" }, { "id": "api_ratio_200", "label": "API-value ratio at $200", "video": 5.6, "ours": 5.609019607843138, "unit": "x", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "That's a 5.6 times difference in Claude's favor.", "video_fmt": "5.60\u00d7", "ours_fmt": "5.61\u00d7" }, { "id": "api_usd_pro_opus", "label": "Claude Pro API value (Opus 5.5)", "video": 1178, "ours": 1180.512, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "At $20, Claude Pro was worth about $1,178", "video_fmt": "$1,178", "ours_fmt": "$1,181" }, { "id": "api_usd_plus_sol", "label": "ChatGPT Plus API value (Sol 6.1)", "video": 211, "ours": 213.148, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "against $211 for ChatGPT Plus", "video_fmt": "$211", "ours_fmt": "$213" }, { "id": "api_usd_max5x_opus", "label": "Claude Max 5x API value (Opus 5.5)", "video": 5725, "ours": 5738.599999999999, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "At $100, Claude Max 5x was about $5,725", "video_fmt": "$5,725", "ours_fmt": "$5,739" }, { "id": "api_usd_pro100_sol", "label": "ChatGPT Pro 100 API value (Sol 6.1)", "video": 1055, "ours": 1045.245, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "against $1,055 for ChatGPT Pro 100", "video_fmt": "$1,055", "ours_fmt": "$1,045" }, { "id": "same_ratio_every_tier", "label": "Same ratio at every tier", "video": true, "ours": true, "unit": "bool", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "That's the same 5.6x ratio at every tier", "video_fmt": "yes", "ours_fmt": "yes" }, { "id": "blend_opus", "label": "Blended Opus 5.5 price per MTok (agentic)", "video": 0.4, "ours": 0.4099, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "a million tokens of agent work costs about 40 cents on Opus", "video_fmt": "$0.40", "ours_fmt": "$0.41" }, { "id": "blend_sol", "label": "Blended Sol 6.1 price per MTok (agentic)", "video": 0.2, "ours": 0.20495, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "and about 20 cents on Sol", "video_fmt": "$0.20", "ours_fmt": "$0.20" }, { "id": "tokens_ultra_opus_b", "label": "Max 20x tokens a month (billions)", "video": 29, "ours": 28.606, "unit": "billion", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "Max holds about 29 billion tokens a month", "video_fmt": "29.0B", "ours_fmt": "28.6B" }, { "id": "tokens_pro200_sol_b", "label": "Pro 200 tokens a month (billions)", "video": 10, "ours": 10.2, "unit": "billion", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "against about 10 billion for Pro", "video_fmt": "10.0B", "ours_fmt": "10.2B" }, { "id": "token_ratio_200", "label": "Token ratio at $200", "video": 2.8, "ours": 2.804509803921569, "unit": "x", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "That's 2.8 times", "video_fmt": "2.80\u00d7", "ours_fmt": "2.80\u00d7" }, { "id": "per_dollar_opus", "label": "Opus API value per $1 of fee", "video": 58.9, "ours": 59.0256, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "about $58.90 of Opus per dollar every tier", "video_fmt": "$58.90", "ours_fmt": "$59.03" }, { "id": "per_dollar_sol", "label": "Sol API value per $1 of fee", "video": 10.55, "ours": 10.657399999999999, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "about $10.55 of Soul per dollar every tier", "video_fmt": "$10.55", "ours_fmt": "$10.66" }, { "id": "no_volume_discount", "label": "No volume discount at either lab", "video": true, "ours": true, "unit": "bool", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "There is no volume discount.", "video_fmt": "yes", "ours_fmt": "yes" }, { "id": "window_tokens_m", "label": "Max 20x tokens in one 5-hour window (millions)", "video": 1740, "ours": 1755.6425009589568, "unit": "million", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "Max can burn about 1,740 million tokens in a single 5-hour window", "video_fmt": "1,740M", "ours_fmt": "1,756M" }, { "id": "week_tokens_m", "label": "Max 20x tokens in one week (millions)", "video": 6579, "ours": 6583.659378596088, "unit": "million", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "while the whole week holds about 6,579 million", "video_fmt": "6,579M", "ours_fmt": "6,584M" }, { "id": "windows_per_week", "label": "Full 5-hour windows per week", "video": 3.8, "ours": 3.75, "unit": "x", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "That's only 3.8 full windows in a week", "video_fmt": "3.80\u00d7", "ours_fmt": "3.75\u00d7" }, { "id": "matched_pair", "label": "Matched-score pair", "video": "claude-opus-5.5@medium vs gpt-6.1-sol@xhigh", "ours": "claude-opus-5.5@medium vs gpt-6.1-sol@xhigh", "unit": "text", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "At a benchmark score of 51 ... Opus costs $1.34 per task at its medium effort setting. Soul at XI effort also scores 51 at 39 cents per task.", "video_fmt": "claude-opus-5.5@medium vs gpt-6.1-sol@xhigh", "ours_fmt": "claude-opus-5.5@medium vs gpt-6.1-sol@xhigh" }, { "id": "cpt_ratio_matched", "label": "Cost-per-task ratio at matched score", "video": 3.4, "ours": 3.400356324764571, "unit": "x", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "for the same quality output, Opus costs 3.4 times more per task", "video_fmt": "3.40\u00d7", "ours_fmt": "3.40\u00d7" }, { "id": "tasks_ultra_matched", "label": "Max 20x tasks a month (Opus medium)", "video": 8750, "ours": 8776.646257485028, "unit": "tasks", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "Claude's $11,726 at $1.34 a task is about 8,750 tasks a month", "video_fmt": "8,750", "ours_fmt": "8,777" }, { "id": "tasks_pro200_matched", "label": "Pro 200 tasks a month (Sol xhigh)", "video": 5340, "ours": 5320.666836345125, "unit": "tasks", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "while ChatGPT's $2,084 at the sole price is about 5,340", "video_fmt": "5,340", "ours_fmt": "5,321" }, { "id": "tasks_per_day_ultra", "label": "Max 20x tasks per working day", "video": 400, "ours": 398.93846624931945, "unit": "tasks", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "Spread over 22 working days, that's roughly 400 tasks a day on Claude", "video_fmt": "400", "ours_fmt": "399" }, { "id": "tasks_per_day_pro200", "label": "Pro 200 tasks per working day", "video": 240, "ours": 241.84849256114205, "unit": "tasks", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "versus 240 on ChatGPT", "video_fmt": "240", "ours_fmt": "242" }, { "id": "task_ratio_matched", "label": "Task ratio at matched score", "video": 1.6, "ours": 1.6495387753903956, "unit": "x", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "Claude still wins, but it wins by 1.6 times, not 5.6.", "video_fmt": "1.60\u00d7", "ours_fmt": "1.65\u00d7" }, { "id": "opus_max_score", "label": "Opus 5.5 max-effort index score", "video": 58, "ours": 57.622, "unit": "score", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "It scores 58 on Artificial Analysis' index", "video_fmt": "58.0", "ours_fmt": "57.6" }, { "id": "opus_max_vs_default_cpt", "label": "Opus max vs medium cost per task", "video": 4.5, "ours": 4.477544910179641, "unit": "x", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "it costs $5.98 per task, which is 4.5 times its own default price", "video_fmt": "4.50\u00d7", "ours_fmt": "4.48\u00d7" }, { "id": "tasks_ultra_max", "label": "Max 20x tasks a month at max effort", "video": 1960, "ours": 1960.1470076897356, "unit": "tasks", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "Claude's budget at the max price is about 1,960 tasks a month", "video_fmt": "1,960", "ours_fmt": "1,960" }, { "id": "tasks_pro200_max", "label": "Pro 200 tasks a month at max effort", "video": 2890, "ours": 2886.619718309859, "unit": "tasks", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "while ChatGPT's is about 2,890", "video_fmt": "2,890", "ours_fmt": "2,887" }, { "id": "max_effort_flips", "label": "At max effort ChatGPT does more tasks", "video": true, "ours": true, "unit": "bool", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "So, the count flips.", "video_fmt": "yes", "ours_fmt": "yes" }, { "id": "api_usd_ultra_fable", "label": "Max 20x Fable 5.1 API value", "video": 2485, "ours": 2506.4, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "the Claude plan limits Fable to about $2,485 of use per month", "video_fmt": "$2,485", "ours_fmt": "$2,506" }, { "id": "api_usd_pro200_astra", "label": "Pro 200 Astra API value", "video": 2897, "ours": 2864.725, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "while the ChatGPT plan runs Astra for about $2,897", "video_fmt": "$2,897", "ours_fmt": "$2,865" }, { "id": "flagship_pair", "label": "Flagship matched pair", "video": "claude-fable-5.1@xhigh vs gpt-6-astra@max", "ours": "claude-fable-5.1@xhigh vs gpt-6-astra@max", "unit": "text", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "at a matched benchmark score of 53, Fable at XY costs $5.98 per task, while Astra at max costs $3.26", "video_fmt": "claude-fable-5.1@xhigh vs gpt-6-astra@max", "ours_fmt": "claude-fable-5.1@xhigh vs gpt-6-astra@max" }, { "id": "tasks_ultra_fable", "label": "Max 20x Fable tasks a month", "video": 416, "ours": 419.2496194570363, "unit": "tasks", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "roughly 416 Fable tasks a month on the Claude plan", "video_fmt": "416", "ours_fmt": "419" }, { "id": "tasks_pro200_astra", "label": "Pro 200 Astra tasks a month", "video": 889, "ours": 879.4244052187261, "unit": "tasks", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "against 889 Astra tasks on the ChatGPT plan", "video_fmt": "889", "ours_fmt": "879" }, { "id": "astra_half_hedge", "label": "Astra tasks if $2,897 were the old allowance", "video": 444, "ours": 439.71220260936303, "unit": "tasks", "status": "same", "why": "SemiAnalysis labels 1.9B as the Pro 200 allowance after the Sep 29 cut, so the halving hedge is not needed.", "quote": "if it's the old allowance, we have it and land at about 444 Astra tasks", "video_fmt": "444", "ours_fmt": "440" }, { "id": "pro500_astra_gain", "label": "Pro 500 Astra vs old Pro 200", "video": 1.21, "ours": 1.2105263157894737, "unit": "x", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "SemiAnalysis found it holds only 21% more Astra than the old $200 plan", "video_fmt": "1.21\u00d7", "ours_fmt": "1.21\u00d7" }, { "id": "ultrafast_burn", "label": "Ultrafast burn rate", "video": 8, "ours": 8.0, "unit": "x", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "ultra fast mode, burns the allowance eight times faster", "video_fmt": "8.00\u00d7", "ours_fmt": "8.00\u00d7" }, { "id": "argon_score", "label": "Gemini 4 Argon index score", "video": 53, "ours": 52.561, "unit": "score", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "Argon looks compelling, scoring 53 on Artificial Analysis's benchmarks", "video_fmt": "53.0", "ours_fmt": "52.6" }, { "id": "argon_cpt", "label": "Gemini 4 Argon cost per task", "video": 1.99, "ours": 1.62, "unit": "usd", "status": "different", "why": "Artificial Analysis changed Gemini 4 Argon's cost per task during Oct 26: the Wayback capture at 2026-10-26 01:02 UTC shows $1.99 (the video's figure), the 21:23 capture this replay uses shows $1.62. https://web.archive.org/web/20261026010237/https://artificialanalysis.ai/leaderboards/models", "quote": "at $1.99 per task", "video_fmt": "$1.99", "ours_fmt": "$1.62" }, { "id": "argon_price_doubles", "label": "Argon API price doubles on Dec 1", "video": true, "ours": true, "unit": "bool", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "that's a launch price, and it doubles on December 1st", "video_fmt": "yes", "ours_fmt": "yes" }, { "id": "google_unmeasured", "label": "Google AI Ultra has no published meter reading", "video": true, "ours": true, "unit": "bool", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "Nobody has measured it.", "video_fmt": "yes", "ours_fmt": "yes" }, { "id": "chat_mix_ultra", "label": "Max 20x Opus API value, chat mix", "video": 9200, "ours": 9203.18916068832, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "On a more chat-heavy mix, SemiAnalysis estimates Max at closer to $9,200", "video_fmt": "$9,200", "ours_fmt": "$9,203" }, { "id": "ab_test_value", "label": "Max 20x API value on the A/B-test variant", "video": 9385, "ours": 9380.479519999999, "unit": "usd", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "some accounts were getting $9,385 of value, and others were getting $11,726", "video_fmt": "$9,385", "ours_fmt": "$9,380" }, { "id": "tasks_max5x_medium", "label": "Max 5x tasks a month (Opus medium)", "video": 4270, "ours": 4295.359281437125, "unit": "tasks", "status": "same", "why": "", "quote": "Claude Max 5X ... holds about 5,725 of Opus value a month, which at medium effort is roughly 4,270 tasks", "video_fmt": "4,270", "ours_fmt": "4,295" }, { "id": "june_reversal", "label": "June: ChatGPT Pro ~$14,000 vs Claude Max 20x ~$8,000", "video": "not recomputed", "ours": null, "unit": "history", "status": "n/a", "why": "Not recomputed: needs SemiAnalysis' June readings and June models, which this run does not fetch.", "quote": "In June ... ChatGPT Pro plan was worth about $14,000 a month in API value against about $8,000 for Claude Max 20X", "video_fmt": "not recomputed", "ours_fmt": "\u2013" }, { "id": "opus_max_burn_11x", "label": "Opus max burns the weekly allowance ~11x faster than medium", "video": 11, "ours": null, "unit": "x", "status": "n/a", "why": "Not reproducible: Artificial Analysis publishes cost per task, not tokens per task, and cost per task gives 4.5x, not 11x.", "quote": "we're burning through the weekly allowance at nearly 11x the rate of its default setting", "video_fmt": "11.00\u00d7", "ours_fmt": "\u2013" } ], "counts": { "same": 45, "different": 1, "n/a": 2 }, "tolerance_note": "'about' figures are compared within 2% (SemiAnalysis prints token totals to 0.1B, so a 1.0B plan can be off by up to 5% before any rounding by the video). Ratios are compared at the video's one decimal. Yes/no claims must match exactly." } }